First off, I’m having issues with my website at the moment, so I had to dust off the old blog which is why things might look a little different than your used to here.
Welcome to my breakdown of today’s Cup Series race from Dover International Speedway, The Monster Mile! I almost wish that Miles the Monster at Dover was actually a real monster who hides under the grandstands in turn 4 and comes out and wreaks havoc when the race turns into a strung out, boring, long green flag run. On second thought, now that I think about it, we have a few drivers in the field who would fit that mold, and most likely they are going to be in my driver pool today! 😂 Let’s get into it and find out!
Breakdown
I kind of already touched on it, but Dover tends to be a pretty clean and green race with long green flag runs and a very low attrition. Track position is king as positions are very hard to gain as the field spreads out. We typically see old school dominating performances here since the clean air means a great deal, and is even magnified with the 750 HP package. It’s hard to really compare Dover to any other track on the circuit, but Darlington is close and it was just last week, so we will start there. I also don’t mind looking at Homestead, but that might be a bit of a stretch. Mainly I will be looking at recent performances at Dover to make my decisions this week.
Again, passing tends to be very hard here and moving through the field is not as easy as we normally see in most weeks. No one has scored more than 19 PD points in the last 4 races. Don’t be married to those big numbers for a drivers starting position today, as those PD points are going to be hard to come by. Our builds should be focused on Dominator point potential and finishing position.
This race is scheduled for 400 laps which means a ton of Dominator points are on the table and we should see some huge scores today. In the last 4 races here we have seen 5 performances of 100+ DK points, with the two highest being 171 and 131 points! We saw another 5 performances of 70-90 points. The top 2 performances in each of the last 4 Dover races averaged a combined 220 DK points. You can see how much easier your day will be if you nail the two big point earners today, and it will be impossible to hit a big score without nailing both of them.
Cheatsheet
Below is my Cheatsheet for today’s race. I highlighted the drivers who I like the most on today’s slate, drivers highlighted in yellow are more geared for GPP formats and should be low owned. I have included my projections and projected value to help assist you as you build your line ups. Stats under the tan header are from “similar” tracks in 2021, stats under the blue header are from the last 4 Dover races.
Dominators
I’m not going to spend a ton of time going through these guys here as they all should be obvious at this point in the season. Truex, Larson, and Hamlin should be the hands down favorites to dominate, and I would likely rank them in that order. All three have had success here recently and all three have had the fastest cars so far this season. Where it gets interesting is deciding how to play them and your roster construction. I started all 20 of my 20 max line ups with some combination of 2 of these three guys, with most combos being Truex/Larson and Truex/Hamlin. I know this cripples our salary but one of these combos should be that combo that puts up over 200 points.
My approach above has really got me skipping over the 10-9k range. You can see my projections to decide how you want to approach this range if you do decide you want some exposure here. I personally just can’t imagine the big score not coming from the big 3, so I’m ok going all in on them today.
Blaney is the next highest price guy I’m looking to play on this slate. He had a solid run last week at Darlington and last time we were at Dover he had the 5th best Avg position and scored over 13 Dom points. All of Penske tends to run well here and in this package, Blaney should easily pay off this very affordable price tag.
I’ve been riding the Bell train for a while now and I’m still on him this week. This package lines up perfectly with Bell’s driving style and I expect him to put up another solid run today. He starts 11th so he should get a few PD points and has the potential to run 10-15 fastest laps. Another solid value option that can be paired with one of the pricey Duos.
If you are looking to save a little more cash then I don’t mind taking the savings and going to Matty D in this range. He typically runs very well here and has even put up 5-10 Dom points in past races here. This track does have some similarities to Bristol which is Matty D’s best track on the circuit. He starts 18th and a Top 10 would deliver solid PD, he should go under the radar this week.
Reddick is a risky play in this range but he has a ton of upside. We saw him running in the Top 5 for much of the race last week at Darlington and he even picked up 11 fastest laps. He is another guy that I feel should have success in this 750 HP package with his ability to get a lot out of a race car.
Stenhouse and Jones are not sexy by any means here, but they both should move forward from their starting position and both have Top 15 upside, if I had to choose between the two I’d go Stenhouse since he likely has a bit more upside than Jones. I like getting the discount on these guys here over playing the chalkier PD plays of Almirola and Custer.
I like throwing in a little Newman and Buescher exposure today. If your only playing a few line ups then they might be a bit too risky, but both have shown the ability to run inside the top 10 this season. Track position is very important here, and either guy can finish around their starting position by just keeping it clean and avoiding dumb mistakes.
I’m going to keep playing with fire and I’m going back to the Ross Chastain well today. It’s only a matter of time before he burns me, but this car has made strides each week this season, could of ran much better at Darlington if it wasn’t for a dumb pit strategy call. Top 10 upside is not out of the question for Ross this week.
Chase Briscoe looked much more comfortable in this package last week at Darlington than he has looked all season. This was one of his better tracks in Xfinity with a win, 3 Top 5’s and 4 Top 10’s in 5 starts. This 750 HP package drives a lot more like the xfinity cars he drove in those races. Can’t have him lose a bunch of positions, but Top 20 would be great for this price, and he has Top 15 upside.
Lajoie is another not so sexy play this week, but he is cheap on a slate where we really need the value. Just need him to move forward from his 26th starting position, which he’s been able to do in recent weeks.
These two guys are what makes it possible to play two of the big dogs without sacrificing some of the upside in the 8-9k range. Houff and Ware are great punt options today. Now understand what I mean when I say they are a punt, do not expect them to score well, but they shouldn’t kill you and they are the bare minimum when it comes to price. The price savings here is what allows you to pair a guy like Blaney or Bell with 2 of the big 3 and still have enough salary left to target some high upside plays in the 7k range. There really isn’t a whole lot of plays I like in that 5k range, so paying down and giving up 10 points or so at this spot isn’t a big deal if it means we land on that 200+ point combo at the top! This is only a GPP type play and I wouldn’t recommend playing these guys if your only playing a few line ups.
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