You might have stumbled onto this page as one of the millions of NFL DFS players looking to fill the void that comes with the close of the season. Lucky for you, we are only a couple weeks away from roaring engines and the start of the 2020 NASCAR DFS season with speed weeks at Daytona and The Great American Race! I’m here to get your season off on the right foot by showing you exactly what strategy to use to end the Daytona 500 weekend with some green!
Super Speedway races like Daytona are some of the most unpredictable races of the season, anything can and often does happen. It would be impossible for me, or anyone else for that matter, to tell you that any one driver will have a good or bad day. Positions change so fast! Finishing positions are determined by avoiding the carnage of “the big one” and catching the right run at the right time in the closing laps. So how do you get an edge in a race that’s unpredictable? There’s one thing at Super Speedways that is more important than the driver, the car manufacturer, the car number, or the owner. The key to green is the starting position. Check out the graph below. This shows AVG DK Points based on starting position across the 4 Super Speedway races in the Cup Series in 2019.
You can clearly see the way the graph trends up as drivers starting position goes up. Looking at this graph would you ever want to play a driver that starts in the top 20? It’s just hard to score points from those positions and a lot easier to lose them. It’s obvious what positions give us our highest floor and highest ceilings. The biggest edge you will have all season in NASCAR DFS is playing Large field 50/50’s and double ups at Super Speedways and making your entire line up with drivers starting in the final 10 positions. The edge is so large because most players will still start the names starting up front. What they don’t know, is when we look at the top 10 in DK Points from each Super Speedway Race last season, only 4 times a driver made the list starting from inside the Top 10. That means these drivers are landing in the Top 10 of DK Points at a rate of 10%. When we look at the same stat for starting positions 10-20, it doubles to 8 drivers, which is still only a success rate of 20%. That leaves 70% of all the Top 10 DK Points performances on Super Speedways in 2019 coming from a starting position greater than 20th. People just can’t leave salary on the table! You need to EXPECT to have a ton of salary left over and be OK with it. Fight the urge to pay up for a name! (unless that name is starting in the rear) The graph shows you where exactly points are being scored, and where they are being lost. If your not convinced I made the same graphs for Xfinity and Truck Series (also racing at Daytona ahead of the 500).
You can see the same trend across the other two NASCAR series. Although there are a couple more higher spikes than the Cup series had in the front starting positions, the consistency is still in the rear. Again, for these races on the Friday and Saturday before the 500, we want to be targeting large field 50/50’s and double ups to attack with this strategy. Really the only difference in strategy is you have to consider “start and parkers” in the lower series. These are cars that are gonna start the race, run a few laps, then park the car and collect the prize money for starting. These cars typically start towards the rear, so you want to make sure you don’t mix a “start and parker” into your lineup. My go to resource for “start and parkers” is @StartAndParkCar on Twitter. Great account to check before a race to make sure your line up is free and clear of S&P’s.
You could literally set you cash lineup for the Daytona 500 today by drawing the final 10 starting positions out of a hat and have a significant edge on the rest of the field. It literally doesn’t matter what driver, what car manufacturer, what car number, or what owner. Say it with me, “start em in the back to start the season in the black!” Follow me on twitter @DFSNascar and subscribe to this blog to get Free NASCAR DFS content delivered right to your inbox! Be on the lookout for Busch Clash and Daytona Duel breakdowns!
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